I recently finished Dan Carlin’s book, “The End Is Always Near”, in which he writes about civilizations and societies from the Bronze Ages through present day and how they ended. He presents known facts, theories and disputed historical arguments.
Having read several books about the fall of the Roman Empire, my understanding is that the empire got too big and could no longer defend its territories. Not only that, it couldn’t even support its territories by providing the basic services the citizens wanted from government. Eventually, the people began to rely on local leaders (warlords?) who were able to provide for them. In effect, the citizens of the Empire walked away from it.
I read something a similar theory about the Incan or Mayan Empire in a different book years ago. The author hypothesize that there was no catastrophic event that ended the Empire. Instead, when the large cities and rulers could no longer provide food, safety and basic life support, the people left. Eventually, the cities and empire were abandoned.
The same week I was reading Dan Carlin’s book, there were three mass shootings leading the news. It was nothing new. In one, students on a college campus were murdered by some random lunatic. In two others, 19 people were killed and a dozens injured at workplace shootings.
I was thinking – “How will this ever end?”
- Our politicians won’t do anything about the proliferation of guns in our country.
- Police cannot protect you. They cannot be everywhere all the time.
- Citizens, armed or unarmed, occasionally are able to stop a shooter, but it usually happens after some people have been killed.
I have several friends who no longer attend events where there will be large crowds because they worry it might attract a shooter.
A neighbor told me she won’t go to sporting events anymore because of this.
I’ve read about parents pulling their kids out of schools because of worries about safety.
I know that many schools now do regular Active Shooter Drills that teach kids to hide, block the door and be afraid if there’s a shooter warning. (I question the effectiveness of the advice and the drills, but I’m no expert.)
I know some places use metal detectors to scan students, attendees and visitors.
Some people carry guns for self protection.
Here’s what I think will happen.
- People will stop going to large gatherings. Between Covid (and subsequent Triple Pandemic fear mongering by the press), school shooting reports and constant carnage on TV, people will choose to stay home.
- There will be no meaningful changes regarding gun control that are effective. We have too many guns in circulation already and too many ways to get new ones.
- Eventually, like with all Empires, people will walk away. As the US government stops serving our needs, we’ll drift further and further away toward places, people and institutions that do serve us.
I’m not predicting a catastrophic failure of the US. Nor do I think I’ll be alive to see the dissolution of the the country.
I think it will take time – years, decades, maybe a century to slowly unravel.
But all empires eventually do.
When our does, I suspect that mass shootings in whatever we split off into will not be as much of a problem as they are today.
Footnote – I am terrible at predicting the future and am likely completely wrong.