I am currently reading “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” by Jared Diamond. In it, he researches ancient civilizations and presents reasons for why they no longer exist. He covers societies including Ancient Egyptians, Maya, Inca, Vikings, Anasazi and several others.
A striking similarity in almost all of these collapses was over-consumption of resources fueling additional population growth during boom cycles followed eventually by retraction and collapse of the society during bust cycles. Boom cycles were created by favorable environmental conditions like good rainfall for crops, nutrient filled soils, available trade, abundant natural resources including wood, iron ore and stone, and temperate weather. Bust cycles were often caused by drought, replenished resources causing cascading catastrophic consequences (eg. cutting down all the trees causes soil runoff), and ultimately too many people competing for too little food.
During the boom times, societies grew. Governments grew. Temples, statues and monuments were built in honor of the elite rulers. Massive numbers of poor people worked to supply the ruling class with food, labor and whatever else was needed. Military forces grew.
More babies were born and more survived.
During bust times, people starved. Exploration and trade diminished. Societies were conquered because they couldn’t support (ie. feed) the military. People died or left.
I see a parallel in modern society.
For example, during the Covid pandemic, tech companies in the US over-hired. They launched new projects and took advantage of the easy money. Then, abruptly, in 2022, they cut workforces, scaled back expansion plans and sold assets. Boom and bust.
A quick glance through US history will show similar trends repeat themselves in real estate, mortgage loan industry, railroads, shipping, tech, banking, crypto, etc.
I think this is a human thing.
We discover something. It grows. We over-consume and think the boom times will never end. Then they do.
Wash-rinse-repeat.
I learned my lesson during the dotcom boom. I fully anticipated being a multimillionaire within a few years since I had been granted some stock options in my company and purchased more with borrowed money. The company went bankrupt and was liquidated.
I lost $50K that I had borrowed.
For the next 10 years, I struggled to earn a decent living working for a number of poorly funded companies with marginal products. Finally, after 10 years, I reached the salary level I had during the dotcom boom.
It was an eye opening and humbling experience.
I’ve lived through several boom and bust cycles since then. My personal rule has been to keep saving for rainy day, live below my means and don’t get caught up in the hype.
I learned that lesson the hard way.
As for the collapse of society – I don’t worry about it all. Most of the ancient societies took a long time to collapse. I should be long gone by then.
If, on the other hand, something catastrophic happens to hasten the collapse, that’s OK too. I’ve got a plan that will free me. There are worse things than dying.