With all the daily Covid reports, we’ve been inundated with stats, data, hastily drawn conclusions, non peer reviewed study results and sensational, misleading headlines.
I’m not the least bit surprised. News reporters have always done this. That’s why people think breakfast is the most important meal of the day (started by Kellogg to sell breakfast cereal), olive oil is a miracle diet food (based on the Mediterranean diet studied by Ancel Keyes in the 1950s), and that easting fat is bad for you but unlimited sugar is fine (paid for by the US Sugar industry).
So when I first heard Sean Baker talking about the carnivore diet, I was a bit surprised when he suggested he was a living experiment of N=1.
He said he ate nothing but meat. He was lean, muscular and strong. His various blood markers and levels were good. His energy was high. He felt better at 50 than he had any other time in his life.
He said, rather than try to convince anyone, they should try it themselves if they want and judge their own results.
That’s the way I do almost everything – I give it a shot and see what happens.
Many times what I expect to happen doesn’t.
Sometimes things work out better than I expected. Both of my hernia surgery recoveries worked out this way. I’ve learned on my own to paint and to drum. Calling hospice was the best thing I ever did when my wife was dying.
Sometimes they work out worse. Repair attempts of old cast iron plumbing or building anything that requires precise, straight lines comes to mind. My failed road trip and giving away everything I owned left me with some regrets. A number of career moves didn’t pan out.
But you know what I’ve learned?
Everything in life is N=1.
No matter what the studies and statistics show, there are no guarantees.
The drugs might not work for me. The solid financial advice may result in a big loss. The “statistical averages” could be accurate but I might be the one who is below average.
Even at odds of 1 in 300 million, someone wins a big Lottery all the time.
Although 97% of hernia surgeries go reasonably well, 3% of those people die.
I like to know the odds when I can. They help me to make a decision.
But often I have no idea what the odds are. When that’s the case I ask myself these questions:
- What’s the worst that could happen?
- What’s the best that could happen?
- What will I do if either happens?
Then I make a decision and act.
In the end, we’re all going to be ashes in the earth – and pretty soon too. Most of the time, whatever happens doesn’t matter so much.