Since I started looking at the source data behind numbers reported by the media, quoted in studies, and referenced by writers, podcasters and the public, I’ve seen the same manipulative tactics used repeatedly. Today, I’m talking about Stack Ranking.
If something is presented in a stack rank, the purpose is to shock the audience into believing it is a significantly large (and presumably common) threat. An example is a recent CNN article titled “Covid-19 is a leading cause of death for children in the US, despite relatively low mortality rate“. My brief read of the JAMA study referenced by the article reveals that there were 821 COVID-19 deaths among individuals aged 0 to 19 years from Aug 2021 to July 2022. This makes it the 8th leading cause of death as follows (actual number of deaths in parenthesis):
- Perinatal conditions (10,387) – 25.7%
- Accidents (7444) – 18.4%
- Congenital malformations or deformations (5286) – 13.1%
- Assault (2770)- 6.9%
- Suicide (2756)- 6.8%
- Malignant neoplasms (1704) – 4.2%
- Diseases of the heart (867) -2.1%
- Covid-19 (821) – 2%
- Influenza and Pneumonia (472) – 1.2%
- Cerebrovascular Disease (297) – .7%
The study concludes that “appropriate pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (eg, vaccines, ventilation, air cleaning) will continue to play an important role in limiting transmission of the virus and mitigating severe disease in CYP“.
No shit.
The point of CNN’s article was to drive clicks to generate ad revenue by sensationalizing Covid as a “leading cause of death among children”.
Let’s break down the numbers:
- 82 Million children age 0-19.
- 32,804 died from all top 10 causes
- .04% of children died from ALL causes in the top 10
- .0008% died from Covid (2% of .04%)
When I read that Covid is a leading cause of death among children, that sounds like a concern.
But is it really a concern for the general public? Does it deserve a front page headline?
- The chance that any child in the US will die from a top 10 cause is 4 out of 10,000 (1 in 2500).
- The chance that any child in the US will die from Covid is 8 out of 1,000,000 (1 in 125,000).
Now ask yourself, how much should I be worried?
How much time should we spend worrying about a 1 in 125,000 chance of something happening?
I suspect that if the article was titled any of the following, there would be fewer clicks:
- Children have a 1 in 125,000 chance of dying from Covid
- Perinatal conditions, Accidents and Birth defects account for 57% of child deaths in the US
- Or even, children are 3 times more likely to die from Assault or Suicide than Covid
This essay isn’t a rant about Covid, children, causes of death or even CNN’s shoddy editorial practices.
It’s about how deliberately misusing data is used to manipulate readers.
I cannot stand when others try to manipulate me. The beauty about numbers is that all it takes a tiny bit of effort to see through the BS.