In North Carolina, we are officially entered Phase 2 of the Covid-19 Safer at Home lockdown and reopening plan yesterday.
According to the initial criteria, we were supposed to move from Stay at Home to Phase 1 only when cases had consistently dropped and hospitalizations had consistently dropped.
Then suddenly, we were in Phase One a few weeks ago even though cases and hospitalizations were rising.
We were told we wouldn’t enter Phase 2 until the same case/hospitalization rates dropped. Then yesterday, we entered Phase Two even though both are rising.
Our Governor says he is making decision based on the data and the science.
All it takes is a cursory look at the numbers to know this is make believe Kabuki Theater.
The first, most obvious problem is that our hospitals, public health departments, labs, nursing homes and testing facilities are not reporting data consistently.
At the highest level, the data compiled and analyzed for the governor is a guess at best.
The second problem is that testing is being done haphazardly, is marginally accessible and is often inaccurate. For example, we are told that only people who are experiencing Covid symptoms and/or have knowingly been exposed to someone with Covid-19 can be tested. Most of the people I know “think” they might have had Covid-19 and recovered but they have not gotten antibody tests. Anyone I know who told their doctor they had symptoms and has requested a nasal swab test has been denied one. Meanwhile, 2 weeks ago I walk into a Labcorp 2 to have self-pay antibody test and get a mandatory nasal swab test prior to my surgery.
Supposedly, I’m negative, although it’s been reported than the antibody test has a high rate of false positives and false negatives. It’s also been reported that 2 nasal swab tests are required to validate the results (I only had one).
The third problem is that we are increasing the amount of testing each week. As we increase the tests, we find more cases of Covid-19 that were previously undetected. Many health care organizations are also not reporting when patients are “cleared” of virus. These two combine to create an ever increasing number of cases.
The WHO, the CDC, the President, the State, the County and the City have all rolled out guidelines for reopening in phases based on “the data”.
Then they promptly ignore the guidelines and reopen or not based on political pressure, common sense, gut feelings or something else.
Aside from the dirty data issue, the guidelines specify rules for safe social distancing including:
- The 6 feet apart rule
- The 50% maximum capacity rule (made up based on nothing)
- The max 10 people, 25 people or 50 people in a group rule (depending on what day it is)
- The mask wearing rule (or recommendation or requirement or non-requirement based on which way the wind is blowing)
- The hand washing rule
- The stay away if you are sick rule
- The take your temperature at the door rule for employees (sometimes for customers)
Aggghhhhh!
This is all bullshit.
Watch anyone wearing masks. They are constantly touching their face and pulling the mask up and down so they can breathe. The general public reuses masks without disinfecting them. I would argue that wearing masks makes us feel like we are doing something good to prevent spread of Covid but that they are effectively useless.
The 6 foot rule was rolled out based on the droplet theory. However, many experts are saying Covid-19 is an airborne virus that remains aerosolized for longer periods of time so the 6 foot separation doesn’t prevent contagion. But it does give people a reason to finger point and scold others.
Temperature checks can catch someone if they have an active fever. It doesn’t help identify asymptomatic carriers or people who don’t have fevers, but it will identify who have a fever, the flu and some percentage who have Covid-19.
The maximum crowd size rule seems arbitrary. I you looks at any basic simulation charts, one person can infect those around him. If he goes around 4 groups of 3, is that better than one group of 12?
So unfortunately, relying on the data is just make believe. It’s just like creating quotas and forecasts.
It’s made up. It’s a partially educated guess at best.
I have a difficult time accepting rules that control my life based on someone else’s guesses and poorly though out decisions.
What numbers do I rely on?
- Covid deaths should be somewhat accurate to monitor the growth or decline of the disease.
- Covid hospitalizations can also help us monitor the volume of severely infected people.
Everything else is us assigning meaning, importance and accuracy to bad data.