I have been reading “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. In it, he presents numerous studies, theories and examples of how people make decisions, predictions and analyses based on irrational reasoning. He writes about biases, sunk cost fallacies, poor risk assessment, probability miscalculations and other factors that weigh into people’s predictions for the future. He presents cases ranging from gambling to investing to salary negation to arguments.
None of these ideas he presents are new – not even to me. They’ve been rehashed in multiple books I’ve read in recent years.
The main take-away from this book for me is:
People are terrible at predicting the future. If someone gets a prediction right, it is due to random luck.
He shows this through numerous examples where random guesses prove to be more accurate than “experts”.
Still, when a prediction comes true, both the predictor and his observers credit “expertise and specialized knowledge” as the reason.
That makes sense to me. I’ve observed this, lived this and believed it about myself and others.
The lesson I’m taking from this book is to disregard all predictions for the future. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. We can all speculate. Or to make the process more entertaining, we could throw darts at a dartboard, pick answers out of a hat or ask the Magic 8 Ball.
Personally, I’ve given up on making almost any predictions that involve more than rudimentary guaranteed end results (eg. all politicians will disappoint you, taxes will go up, we are all going to die).
As for the future? Who knows? I certainly don’t. I’m not buying that anyone else does either.