I started noticing something during Covid that I’ve now become hypersensitive to observing.
The numbers quoted in breaking news stories are made up. At best, they are broad estimates made by a person with a modicum of relevant expertise. At worst, they are wild-ass guesses often based on a single-source and then repeatedly quoted by others until they become the accepted standard by virtue of repetition.
I won’t relitigate any of these numbers in the examples below:
- Covid infections, deaths, vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy %s, long term risks/benefits
- Civilian casualties and “death counts” provided by Hamas immediately following an Israeli bomb strike.
- Number of protestors/rioters during the BLM/George Floyd/No Kings and similar mass gatherings
- Damage estimates after a natural disaster like a flood, wildfire, earthquake or hurricane.
- Whether the Bunker Buster bombs “obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities or not” as announced by Trump immediately after the attack
Here’s the glaring commonality – we cannot possibly calculate data like this accurately within hours (or days or weeks) of large-scale events.
Life doesn’t work that way.
It takes time to count people, verify data and assess situations to determine accurate information.
Anytime some source blurts out numbers following a breaking news event, I now disregard them. They cannot possibly be accurate. I might as well make my own guess based on looking out of my window and counting the people affected only street (which would usually put me at zero).
At least I’d know my counting was accurate. And timely.