Hollywood, as we once knew it, is over.
I started to witness the slow decline of Hollywood in the early ’90s when movie & television production moved from LA to cheaper locales in Canada, Pittsburgh and Vancouver.
Then in the 2000s, it moved to the deep South, the UK, Australia and New Zealand where government sponsored incentive packages helped pay for costs.
A decade later, the companies I worked for sold software and hardware to film production companies whose primary goal was to reduce production costs, labor costs and production times.
Throughout these 30 years, CGI and VFX improved exponentially, eliminating the need for special effects, stuntmen, on-location filming and expensive shooting budgets.
The final nail in the coffin is AI.
Last week, OpenAI released Sora, an AI app that creates near-realistic video from text prompts. The same week, Particle6, a UK based AI production studio, released Tilly Norwood, an AI generated “actress” for hire.
It’s over.
I predict there will be a massive decimation of LA based movie/TV workers. This tidal wave will hit everyone from Directors to Actors to Production plus a multitude of related businesses like catering, set building, transportation, lighting, logistics, etc.
Hollywood thought they had it rough before AI. They had no idea how bad it will soon become.
This happens to every industry. When more efficient, cheaper methods are adopted, there’s an inevitable transformation.
It’s unstoppable.
My prediction, for what it’s worth, is that Hollywood will shrink to become a boutique industry within a few years.
The survivors will become like artisanal craftsman, broadway shows and theaters like Alamo Drafthouse. Their custom based will shrink to a small group of wealthy die-hard aficionados willing to pay a premium for a handcrafted, personal, artisanal experience.
The cheaper, soon to be ubiquitous AI-slop will service the masses.
If I worked in Hollywood I wouldn’t even attempt to fight this. I’d join an AI company or transform into a boutique firm or leave Hollywood altogether.