We are 5 weeks into the Covid-19 lockdown of the US and most of the world.
We appear to have temporarily interrupted the spread of the virus through extreme social distancing including closing all schools, most workplaces and all social gatherings.
Soon we will begin reopening the country.
I have some gloomy predictions. I hope I am wrong.
- The virus will hit us harder in the 2nd wave. This will happen soon after we lift the lockdown because we have done nothing to eliminate the virus. It will spread quickly once we expose each other to it.
- There will not be another complete lockdown. In the US, the government will not extend any additional money to workers who have been forced into furloughs or lost jobs due to the shutdown. When people cannot buy food, they will return to work or they will riot.
- Society cannot tolerate extended, indefinite isolation. In most of the US, the first wave has been mild, perhaps because of the lockdowns. Confirmed cases of infection hospitalizations and deaths are all much lower than originally predicted (modeled). It’s been bad in some hotspots, but nowhere near as bad as we were told it would be.
- Even if we contain/control the virus in the US, it is coming back. Too much of the entire world has been infected. There is no way for us to shut our borders, our trade and our travel to prevent recontamination.
- There is no vaccine coming soon – if ever. We’ve known about coronaviruses for decades. The world has dealt with SARs and MERs for over 10 years with no vaccine. What makes us think we can suddenly develop an effective vaccine? Even if we can, the experts all say it is 12-18 months away. We cannot stay on lockdown for that long.
I think it is inevitable that we are going to see many more people get infected, many more get sick and many more die.
I don’t believe we can avoid this. I think this is how nature works.
It happened with the Black Plague. It happened with the Spanish Flu. It happened with plagues and diseases that came long before modern society.
Humanity will survive.
Society may change.
People will suffer.
People will die.
But the world will go on.
I wonder why almost no politicians or world leaders are talking about this (except maybe Sweden).
I suspect it is because no leader wants to be the one to say, “People are going to die. It’s going to be bad. We cannot prevent this.”
I suppose they don’t want to be the first to take on that burden or the responsibility for lifting a lockdown that is saving lives (temporarily by delaying the spread fo infection).
But I am not a politician or a world leader.
So I will say it.
I am sorry for all who are suffering, all who will suffer, those who will die and those left behind.
It will be hard. It will be bad. Some of us will make it through. Some of us will not.
But the world will go on.