Universal Basic Income sounds like a wonderful way to promote society, provide a buffer against unemployment for any number of reasons, ensure a minimum quality of life and care for humanity. I’ve listened to numerous arguments for and against it. I’ve read through positive results of small studies and short term applications of UBI-like assistance.
It will never happen in the US. We couldn’t even get it together to offer some kind of universal healthcare for our citizens during the Covid pandemic. There is zero chance we’ll ever offer UBI.
The Covid pandemic and its aftermath, if anything, has ensured it. During the pandemic, the government provided extended and increased unemployment benefits for people who could not work during shutdowns. I personally know several people who more money from unemployment during Covid than they did had they been working. All of them put off returning to work until their enhanced unemployment ran out.
These were not highly paid white collar workers. They were were hourly wage earners. One worked in a daycare. Another was a painter and construction laborer.
Post pandemic, we had an “employment crisis”. Many people who had been working shit jobs for low pay did not return to work. I don’t know what they did for money, but we all saw the results. There were staffing shortage for positions in retail, fast food, labor, and almost any other public facing hourly position. These operations cut hours and used the dreaded paper sign to indicate unannounced closings due to short staff. This became a convenient excuse to use for poor service and increased prices that has continued for 3 years. Getting a response from a contractor, repairman or service worker took weeks or longer.
And that’s why UBI will never become a reality in the US. Who will do the crappiest jobs for the lowest wages if they are not forced to do so to eke out. substance living? If UBI covered food, rent and basic needs, then who do the menial labor for the wealthy?
Throughout the history of society, the powerful/wealthy people have always been served by the lower classes. Those at the top have used slavery, indentured servitude, income inequality, manipulation, and penal codes to ensure they had workers to do their bidding while they enjoyed luxurious lives.
So, with the threat of AI eliminating jobs, I have no faith that UBI will be created as an alternative. AI cannot clean toilets, mow the lawn, do the laundry, cut hair, and otherwise serve the wealthy.
There will be be jobs. They will suck and be low paying. Just as it has always been.
*Note – This is a US centric post. I suspect some smaller countries might deploy UBI as a safety net. I am frequently amazed at the social safety nets offered in EU and Nordic countries. But I have seen zero progress toward anything remotely similar in the US. Here, you are on your own.