People are really good at predicting the past and quite horrible at predicting the future, which is why I make a conscious effort to avoid speculation from myself and from others.
Once you start listening for speculation, you’ll hear it everywhere. Reporters, politicians and pundits do it all the time. In fact, it is their core communication style. They make a statement and immediately follow it up with a declaration predicting future events. When this happens, I urge you to follow the money. If the speaker will generate donations, clicks, views or sales from dire predictions, you should be very skeptical of their accuracy.
Celebrities do it. Anyone with a public platform does it.
And so do ordinary people like you and me.
So it’s not just a media issue or a social media problem. It’s ingrained in us.
Here are some of my most recent inaccurate predictions:
- My 2nd hernia surgery will cost the same as the first one (Wrong, it cost 20% less).
- The pandemic lockdown will never go longer than 2 weeks in the US, we’d never stand for it. (Off by 2 years)
- US Citizens will never wear facemarks like they do in Asian countries. (Still wearing them)
- Schools won’t be shut down longer than a week – parents won’t be able to handle their kids at home. (18 months and counting for some districts)
- The US economy and stock market are going to crash and be down for a long time (the opposite happened).
Here are some recent events that I refuse to listen to speculation about:
- Will IATSE go on strike? What Apple /Movie Industry negotiators want vs. the Union Leaders (how can we possible know this?)
- The effectiveness and length of protection from Covid-19 vaccines.
- Long term effects of Covid vaccinations (duh…how can you know long term when long term hasn’t happened yet).
- Inflation.
- What will be in Biden’s $3.5 Trillion infrastructure bill (until a bill is passed, it’s all speculation)
- Product shortages, the price of gasoline, problems with “restarting” the global economy and logistics
I’ve got opinions on all of these. Most of them are based on my biases, my experience and my high regard of my own intellect. In other words, my opinions are uniformed and irrelevant.
And so, I’ve been tuning out of podcasts. I stopped following the news – even from sources I think are semi-reliable.
When my friends and I talk, I find myself saying,
“I have no idea what will happen”
“Don’t listen to me, I’m just speculating.”
“What the f*** do I know?“
“My track record of predicting the future is abysmal!”
It turns out that this is the case for most of us.